Building a wave scenario

Core idea

Failing to build a scenario is not because of a lack of knowledge, but because you haven't chosen a target timeframe yet. Pick a cluster of timeframes that fits your available time → scan the market from long-term down to short-term → name the wave correctly (main wave or bounce wave) → write out a few scenarios, each one paired with a confirming condition and a disconfirming condition.

Details

Step 0 — Choose the target cluster of timeframes (the most important step)

The root cause of that "lost" feeling: turning on every timeframe, each one pointing a different way — 5m up, 15m down, H1 up, 1D different again → chaos, no way to know whether to build a rising or falling scenario.

• Choose based on your available time & the nature of your work, not based on what other people are trading:
  • Working 8–10 hours a day, meetings all day → the H1 / H2 / H4 cluster (the teacher says "not too small, not too big").
  • Free in the evenings → you can also play with 5m / m15 (the wave finishes running within one session).
  • Give up the profits of the other timeframes decisively. The teacher's phrase for it: those waves "don't suit you," not that you're missing out. Other people making money on a small timeframe — let them. Other people making money on a big timeframe — let them.
• On the same timeframe, two people can still trade in two different styles: someone glued to the screen all day enters early on a smaller timeframe, short stop, big position, and may have to enter-exit several times; someone busy waits for the smaller timeframe to finish building its structure before entering, wider stop, smaller position — but both keep their stop at 1% of the account, and the second person's psychology stays steadier, no rushing.
• Trading is independent work, not teamwork. You can turn off the group-chat notifications and only join the live sessions — because everyone trades a different timeframe, and reading other people's scenarios just confuses you.

Step 1 — Scan the whole picture from long-term down to short-term

Order: 1M → 2W/1W → 3D/2D → 1D → H4 → H1 → m15 → 5m. Each timeframe answers 3 questions:

1. What trend is RSI in (above/below the 2 MAs, expanding or contracting)?
2. Is the fuel tank still fairly full or nearly empty, has it gone far on the sine wave yet? → the wave's fuel tank
3. Has there been any bounce wave yet?

The conclusion you need to draw: what shape the market is currently in (uptrend / downtrend / range) and which timeframe the coming wave belongs to.

A sample example (9/2022): 1M is expanding downward → a long-term downtrend, at least until 2024–2025 before it can reverse. 1W has already gone very far down from the 80–70 zone, with only exactly one bounce so far, a long time ago → a weekly bounce wave is coming soon. → Name it: "a weekly bounce wave inside a monthly falling wave."

Step 2 — Name the wave correctly: main wave or bounce wave

• A rising pattern on timeframe X that appears while the bigger timeframe is falling → that's a bounce wave, short target, close early.
• A rising pattern while the bigger timeframe agrees it's rising → a genuine rising wave, expected to go further.
• Naming it wrong → expecting wrong → a winning position turns into a loss. For example: H2 has a rising pattern while 1D is still in a falling trend, and expecting it to reach up to 21,000 is unreasonable.

Step 3 — Write several scenarios, each with its own conditions

A long-term scenario template the teacher builds:

Scenario 1 (~70%, the teacher leans toward this one) — weak bounce, then sells off further

• What happens: 1W bounces up in a "refining-the-price" style — not a strong bounce but a rough, jerky crawl upward to smooth out RSI, then rolls back down to keep selling off along the monthly timeframe. Price whipsaws up and down all the way from late 2022 to mid-2023.
• Confirming signs: 3D/1D bounce up along a price channel and then slip back down, with no buying pressure joining in; altcoins climb a little and then drop back to their lows while BTC goes sideways.
• Tactic: trade both directions at the edges, absolutely don't trade in the middle zone. Take short profits, reduce position size.

Scenario 2 — the weekly bounce wave runs for real

• What happens: 1W bounces in one stretch of ~20–30 thousand in price (from around 20k up to 44–48k), nearly a 2x.
• Mandatory confirming condition: 1D / 2D / 3D have to repeatedly create rising momentum, one after another, to pull the weekly timeframe up. Without rising momentum in this group, the weekly bounce wave can't run.
• Disconfirming condition: 1D reaches some zone without creating rising momentum, then rolls back down → close the trade, revert to Scenario 1.
• A filtering condition outside technical analysis: a weekly-timeframe 2x needs real capital inflow; for real inflow to happen, the market needs the beginnings of a new narrative/technology trend (like lending in 2017, DeFi beginning in 2019–2020). If there's no new term/trend in the current zone, then even if the whales push it up, nobody buys along → Scenario 2's probability is low.

Don't know where the range's edges are yet? Wait for the first wave to draw them out: how far does 1W bounce before 1D/2D turns weak, no rising momentum, and starts rolling back down → that's the upper edge. Do it once or twice and you'll have the channel; after that, just watch for price returning to that zone.

Short-term scenario template (same session):

• If over the next few days price goes sideways, pulling H4's RSI gradually into contraction with the 2 MAs → that means no selling pressure is involved → look for a long entry and see how far it gets pulled up.
• If instead of going sideways, H1 quickly forms a bounce wave and then rolls back down → H4 opens a second leg → price keeps falling.

Step 4 — Check both directions before entering a trade

The formula: the adjacent bigger timeframe ALLOWS it + the adjacent smaller timeframe SUPPORTS it.

1. Does the bigger timeframe allow it: is 1D/2D/3D in phase or out of phase with your pattern? Out of phase → it's just a bounce wave, short target.
2. Does the smaller timeframe support it: has 5m/15m built a rising (or falling) structure yet — has it broken support/resistance and retested yet. You have to look at both RSI and price support/resistance, not just one of the two.
   • Note: if the smaller timeframe hasn't broken support yet, don't talk about the bigger timeframe falling — as long as the smaller timeframe still holds its rising structure, the bigger timeframe can't fall.
3. Has a bounce wave formed yet → wave validity abc. If not, skip it → risk wave.
4. Is there a clear place to put the stop (the nearest low/high of the timeframe you're trading). A range zone with no support/resistance → don't enter.
5. TP: the nearest high/low. For example, the teacher measured one setup at a risk of 1 to gain 4–5.
6. You don't need the bigger timeframe to have fully crossed down before entering: the bigger timeframe nearly out of gas + the smaller timeframe already giving a signal and building a structure is enough to enter on the smaller timeframe to capture the bigger timeframe's move.

Step 5 — Run the scenario while a trade is open

• Set a price alert at the important zones if you're busy at work.
• For H1: checking your phone roughly every 1–1.5 hours is enough — if the scenario's already built, checking is very fast.
• Close out when: the immediately smaller timeframe finishes its momentum without creating new momentum; or price returns exactly to the smaller timeframe's support and fails to break it → close immediately, don't wait.
• Hold when: it breaks support and then retests it → keep watching the next support level.
• You can enter 50% of the position early when the smaller timeframe's RSI is about to roll over, then watch the force at support/resistance to enter the rest of the position on the bigger timeframe.

The MONTHLY-timeframe scenario — and the trap of "mistaking a monthly bounce for an uptrend"

Applying the same process above to the biggest timeframe, the teacher builds two scenarios for round 2 of the monthly timeframe (after the monthly timeframe has corrected):

1. Price only comes back down to the weekly support and bounces — the monthly timeframe is still fine, a moderate bounce wave.
2. It can't hold that support → one more leg down comes with bad news, down to a deeper support zone before bouncing — the bounce wave at that point is much stronger, and the buy-in position is much cheaper.

The condition that separates the two scenarios isn't purely technical — it's one question: has the crowd become afraid / has it fully sold off yet?

• If the push up is strong while the crowd hasn't gotten afraid yet, the whales are only creating an opportunity for the people who bought the top to get out at breakeven → the whales themselves are the ones losing. So if fear hasn't shown up yet, the market will go sideways or push down again to test supply and demand.
• A psychological example the teacher gives: people who bought the top still say "buy Bitcoin, hold for 3 years, it'll break even no matter what" — with belief still that strong, the whales still have to keep probing, even pump out bad news about the exchange to test the waters.
• A very expensive self-check marker: the exact moment you yourself lose faith is when you have to stop and ask — where does the fear come from, and do you have enough capital, within what you can afford to lose, to go against the crowd. The teacher says plainly: with 10 units of money, all-in plus borrowed on top, "not even the devil himself has the nerve for that" (psychology's movement on the chart, stress trading and capital strategy).

Careful: The wave-naming trap (this is exactly Step 2 above, applied to the monthly timeframe): the monthly timeframe's bounce wave can be very large — large enough to look exactly like a new uptrend — but it's still a BOUNCE WAVE, not an uptrend breaking the previous high, not an altseason. The practical consequences:

• Prioritize BTC, don't scatter across altcoins wholesale. With no new capital inflow, the whales are just trading among themselves and pumping a few new alts to create FOMO (whether an altcoin project has substance).
• A halving or a big piece of news that happens to line up with the bounce wave ≠ the cause of a new uptrend. The real condition for an uptrend is new capital inflow, and new capital inflow depends on the economic cycle and society's capacity to bear risk (news and the market).
• You still have to capture the monthly bounce wave — how much depends on your nerve; if you're afraid, reduce your position size rather than standing completely aside. A monthly-timeframe wave can last a whole year, so don't sell too early while the smaller timeframes still have force.
• After the bounce finishes, there will be a very boring sideways stretch; don't let that stretch break your confidence and make you miss the real uptrend wave that comes after it (the four psychological stages).

(The exact price levels and years from the session have been left out — only the principle is kept.)

The condition distinguishing SINGLE WAVE vs. PRICE CHANNEL — the short version

These two sessions circle back to exactly the fork described in Step 3 (the refined-price scenario vs. the single-wave scenario), but land on one short rule:

A bounce runs as a single wave when it's IN AGREEMENT with the adjacent bigger timeframe. A bounce runs as a price channel when it's OUT OF PHASE with it.

• A session example: the weekly timeframe bounces up but is still out of phase with the monthly timeframe (the monthly RSI is still expanding downward below the two moving averages) → the teacher gives roughly 70–80% odds that the weekly bounce runs in the refined-price/price-channel style. (The auto-generated transcript recorded "780%"; context shows it means 70–80%. For the exact wording, check again.)

• But don't push the rule too far. In Session 39 the teacher corrects a common misunderstanding — a "chicken-becomes-duck" mix-up: the question of whether the weekly bounces as a single wave or in refined-price style does not require the monthly timeframe to agree. The weekly single wave can still run while the monthly has only rolled over once. What actually decides it is the first wave + the adjacent timeframes (1D / 12h / 2D): they have to have real rising momentum for it to pull the weekly along as a single wave; if they run out of force or their pattern rolls over into a correction → it's almost certainly going to be a price channel → close out the long positions, switch to looking for a short along the 1D trend. → How to reconcile the two ideas: the adjacent timeframe is the necessary and sufficient condition for the call; the distant bigger timeframe is only a background probability.

• You only know the channel's edges AFTER the first wave has run out of force and finished forming a low/high. Don't draw the channel beforehand.

• Inside the parent timeframe's channel: the rising/falling wave is the child timeframe's wave. If the upper edge shows a rolling-down pattern, short it; if the lower edge shows a rolling-up pattern, go long. If you buy the rise, you have to close at the upper edge — don't let it turn into "hugging the wave" as a hold.

A filter outside technical analysis: a 2x in BTC's price means doubling its market cap — the whales don't put up that much money on their own, most of it has to come from smaller fish FOMO-ing in, and smaller fish only come in when there's a new game / story / investment trend. If you haven't seen a new narrative and haven't seen new people getting involved, you have to lean heavily toward the price-channel scenario (that session the teacher said ~90%). See news and the market.

Putting it into practice

A sample work rhythm for someone with a job (the teacher lays it out directly):

• Wake up in the morning: only open H1/H2/H4. Is there a pattern? No → go to work, forget the chart. It's fine if there's no wave all week.
• There's a pattern → check 1D/2D (does it allow it?) → check 5m/15m (does it support it?) → name the wave (main or bounce) → determine TP/SL → enter the trade → set an alert.
• During the day: check every 1–1.5 hours.
• Free evenings / weekends: if 5m/15m has a clear pattern, trade the smaller timeframe too — but you still have to be consistent, still check its bigger timeframe (30m/H1) and its smaller one.

What the teacher stresses / common traps

• "No pattern, no scenario." No wave means rest, it's that simple.
• Wait for the market to give you evidence, don't predict ahead of time — don't slap the label "this will be a rising wave" onto a timeframe the bigger one hasn't yet supported.
• Don't over-expect. Hope placed in the wrong spot is a double-edged sword; it's like putting everything into the attack when the opponent is strong.
• A scenario already built in your head is exactly what keeps your psychology steady through the "hope – disappointment" cycle that a sideways market creates.
• In the early stage: deliberately enter a step behind the market; the goal is to learn, not yet to make money, so trade on a demo account so you don't lose money and composure at the same time.
• Reviewing old videos/notes after you've gained experience unlocks a lot more — at first you only manage to understand a very small amount of it.
• Give yourself 1–2 years to get good at this if your available time is limited; forcing the pace only breeds negative emotions.
• At this stage, losing to the market is hard, but losing to yourself is easy — mostly because you can't hold back, jumping into waves that aren't clear.

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