Wave scenarios when the market IS TRENDING

Core idea

Once the ≥1D timeframes are in phase, you must flip the switch to trend mode immediately: there are only two states left, LONG or WAIT TO LONG, and the short button is deleted. In a trend, the body of knowledge is followed almost 100% of the time, so the hard part isn't analysis but holding the trade and not FOMOing — which is why the scenario has to be written on paper, with multiple branches, and every capital-in/capital-out decision has to go through the pen–paper–candle exercise.

Details

The signal to flip the switch into trend mode

When you see, simultaneously:

• The ≥1D timeframes in phase: 1D has RSI crossing up and the two moving averages fanning out very wide; 2D/3D have already turned back into an uptrend; 1W is in an uptrend.
• A genuine breakout weekly candle: full body, breaking through the nearest resistance, with good trading volume → Volume & the DXY index (volume and DXY).

⇒ Don't wait for anything else. Switch mindsets right away: raise your expectations to match the wave, and be even more cautious of any urge to go against it.

Hard rules during a trend phase

• Only LONG or WAIT TO LONG. Delete the short button. Anyone who still shorts has to accept systematically higher risk than reward — it's not a ban, it's math.
• In a strong uptrend, even someone with no tactical mindset who buys blindfolded in these zones still has a shot at breaking even. But shorting against it without managing the trade carefully will almost certainly get you stopped out.
• The knowledge is followed with extreme accuracy: upward momentum almost always completes, each wave runs its course, and any wave with a coherent pattern will move. The reason: a trading system exists to measure the difference between buying and selling force — in a trend the difference is very clear so the system runs correctly; in a range the difference is small, which is exactly why it needs fine-tuning through tactical mindset.

The rule for holding a trade

Keep holding for as long as the small timeframe keeps raising support and it hasn't broken. If the small timeframe keeps raising support without losing it → no correcting force has joined in yet → you're allowed to hold and capture the whole profit range.

Careful: The classic trap for someone who's just come out of a range phase: used to capturing a few hundred points per trade, now that a wave runs a thousand points, they get shaky hands → guess at the top → try to call the top → close too early.

The trap of "H4 has already run far, I don't dare go long"

The question that actually needs answering isn't "has it gone far yet" but:

1. What is that timeframe's current state — still rising, or already falling? If it's still rising, "gone far" is just a feeling.
2. Does the small timeframe have a clear pattern / bounce wave?
3. Is the risk within the allowed range (is there a place to put the SL)?

All three conditions met → enter, don't overthink it. "It's gone far, looks like it's about to drop" is a forecast, not a market signal.

The risk math is very clear: if you're wrong, worst case you eat one SL = 1% of the account. If you're right, you capture an entire trend segment. And all the trend-following trades before that have already been in profit.

Logic for inferring the target from the SIZE OF THE FIRST WAVE

This is the best piece of reasoning in the session — filtering scenarios without needing technical analysis yet, using only the question: "Under this scenario, does the shark profit or lose?"

When the first wave rises with very large volume and a very strong magnitude:

• If it pushes up only to let others sell into it and then crashes right away → it loses heavily itself. It's not doing charity work, it's not handing out money to the whole market.
• ⇒ The only reasonable explanation: its real target is still much farther away. It needs a story to keep the crowd, including newcomers, jumping in, so it can distribute its holdings.
• ⇒ The stronger the first wave, the more volume ⇒ the bigger the target for the following waves. A strong first wave is good news, not "you missed the wave" news.

The remaining possibility (the market crashing straight from here) requires an extremely large, unforeseen event that makes even the group pushing the price lose money too → very low probability. And if it does happen, you lose nothing, because you didn't chase-buy in this zone anyway.

The scenario must stay OPEN — keep multiple branches, don't assert certainty

A sample method:

• Main branch (feasible target): the zone calculated with technical analysis — always remind yourself this is the main marker.
• Low-probability side branch (~10–30%): the wave runs much farther, even completing the monthly timeframe's upward momentum.

The purpose of the side branch isn't to bet on it, but to:

• Not be caught off guard if it happens.
• Not close too early from having locked your mind onto the initial target.

Why you have to do this: human psychology always goes looking for every possible reason to defend the conclusion it made at the start. If you locked in "the target is X" at the beginning, once you reach X you'll make up a reason to sell, even if the market is saying otherwise.

But you have to be very disciplined about the side branch: if the daily timeframe rises without force (RSI doesn't rise into the 70 zone), and can't create momentum → exit right away, wait for a correction to buy back in. Accept that you may have to buy back at a higher price — that's the cost of avoiding buying the top with no way back.

BTC ↔ altcoin money flow within a wave

Rule: real money flows into BTC first, before it's distributed to altcoins.

• BTC rises while alts haven't budged ⇒ a GOOD SIGNAL (confirming this is real money flow), not "missing the alt wave."
• The reason on the alt market-maker's side: there are three indices — ALT/USD, BTC/USD, ALT/BTC. If BTC rising pulls ALT/USD up along with it, then both numerator and denominator rise → measured in BTC terms, it's a wash. So the market maker is already in profit just by holding BTC, and pushing alt at this point would be "foolish."
• ⇒ Alts only get pushed once BTC stabilizes / goes sideways.
• ⇒ In fact, if BTC enters a correction wave, many alts even drop to a new low — that's when the price is actually good to buy.

The corresponding allocation tactic:

• Early in the wave: give BTC an overwhelming priority (the teacher says his personal allocation is 90/10, with a general recommendation of 80/20). For futures, trade only BTC.
• Save alts for spot buying on waves of the ≥1D timeframe, don't chase-buy them during BTC's wave.

Deploy capital in a LADDER, never all at once

Sample the teacher gives for a big wave:

• ~30–35% of capital when H4 breaks through a stop level/resistance strongly and clearly.
• +10–15% when 1D breaks the previous high, building clear momentum (total ~50%).
• The remaining 50% goes in during the correction wave of a bigger timeframe (2D/3D), once the upward structure is secured.

"You never get to capture a wave with a single trade. Hold onto that mindset and you'll only lose."

Wave timeline — the cure for impatience

Read back through history to know how much time you actually have:

• A 1D wave within a big trend runs for a whole month.
• Example, the 2020 wave: price rose continuously for ~45–48 daily candles ≈ nearly 2 months (doubling the price) before correcting; the correction wave that followed also lasted nearly a month. ⇒ You have a whole month to make a decision. There's no reason to rush within a single evening.

Two kinds of bounce waves to watch for buying

1. A simple-wave bounce — pulls back to around Fibonacci 0.5, then continues.
2. A range-at-the-top bounce — price goes sideways within a triangle/channel zone, but RSI still draws out a pattern → it's still a buying opportunity.

Both can be spotted if you combine them with RSI. See Wave validity — the equation a + b = c (the validity of the ABC wave) and The wave's fuel tank (RSI = fuel tank) (the fuel-tank for a wave).

THE PEN – PAPER – CANDLE EXERCISE (a mandatory requirement, not just advice)

The teacher sets this as a requirement: before every decision to deploy or withdraw capital on a spot account, you must do this exercise.

Setting: pick a quiet place, free of interference from electronic devices. Pick up a pen, write it out on paper.

Question 1 — Draw a two-column table:

Question 2 — Where can I buy for the lowest risk? Write this question out clearly. The answer is almost always: only buy when there's a bounce wave / correction wave. Emotion will want to buy right now; reason always waits for the correction wave.

Question 3 — What emotional decisions have made me repeat mistakes in the past? Or flip it: "Which emotional decision did my past mistake come from, so I can avoid it now?" Write down specifics: where I went wrong in the previous cycle.

Why write by hand: the act of picking up a pen and writing activates rational thinking, keeping emotion from muscling in and overriding reason. Just thinking it in your head, greed always wins ("what if it just shoots straight up").

Use it both ways: when you want to BUY out of fear of missing the wave, and when you want to SELL out of fear of losing profit. When you want to sell, redo the table: has a real down factor actually appeared in the market yet? Not yet → you're allowed to keep holding.

The psychological safety valve

If your psychology is too strained: once the account doubles, pull the original principal back out, and let the profit portion keep running. If you went in with 100 and now have 200 → pull the 100 back out, let the 100 in profit run all the way.

Accompanying principle: "Better to eat a little than not eat a single cent" — but closing too early is still a mistake, not a solution.

Preparing in advance for the trend's ending

Every trend ends with a top distribution zone: the crowd FOMOs in with extremely strong conviction (fed by narrative + a barrage of good news), price pokes slightly above the high, then builds a distribution zone and crashes. So even while you're still capturing the up-wave, you must already be preparing a position for a big short afterward. See News & the market (narrative, good/bad news, capital flow) (news and the market).

Putting it into practice

1. The moment the ≥1D timeframes are in phase: write one line in your journal — "TREND MODE ON, short button deleted." Stick it on your screen.
2. Write a two-branch scenario (feasible target / farther branch), each branch with a confirmation condition and an invalidation condition → Building a wave scenario.
3. Split capital into a 3-step ladder before entering the first trade, writing down the price level/condition for each step clearly.
4. Before every time you click to enter or exit spot capital: do the 3-question pen–paper–candle exercise. If you haven't done it, don't click.
5. If you've never lived through a trend before, you have to borrow experience: spend time back-testing an old trend cycle (2020–2021) — look at how 1D completed its upward momentum, what 2D/3D looked like at that time, and how the small timeframes within 1D ran. Skip this exercise and you'll definitely close too early.
6. Trading futures: accumulate with the trend, enter whenever there's a small-timeframe pattern + support is holding. Buying spot: only on bounce waves.

What the teacher stresses / common traps

• A trader has no concept of expensive or cheap — only the concept of POSITION. The only question: which zone to buy in for the lowest risk and highest win rate. Whether the price is high or low is never what matters.
• Never push your risk too large, no matter how beautiful the market looks. Always leave a way out with a clear SL point.
• Don't try to eat the whole market. If the wave rises 10 parts, capturing 6–7 parts is enough. "Just eat half the market — eat it all and the market will hate you for it."
• The bitterness trap: missing a trend-following wave → getting bitter → waiting for price to bounce so you can short it out of revenge. In an uptrend, this is the fastest way to blow up an account.
• In a trend, no correction wave means no spot buying — wait. Anxiously asking "can I buy yet" is a sign your psychology is malfunctioning.
• News is just an excuse. War, political events, halvings... aren't what drives price up; they're the narrative used by the sharks to pull in new money flow. Ordinary retail money is too small to create a wave (roughly 80% of the wealth sits with a small group of people).
• If you don't know, say you don't know. The teacher admits there was a volume zone he couldn't explain at the time, and had to wait for more data before an answer even started to emerge — and he stresses: at a point when there's no data yet, buying on a guess is foolish.
• Don't rule out any possibility, but also don't cling stubbornly to any one possibility. Capture the wave as far as it goes, no further.

Related lessons

• Range vs trend tactics (range vs trend tactics) — the comparison table of the three phases; this note digs deeper specifically into the TREND branch
• Building a wave scenario (building a wave scenario) — the general scenario-building process (choosing a timeframe cluster, naming waves, confirmation/invalidation conditions)
• Tactical mindset — the process to determine before entering a trade (tactical mindset) — the process for setting your mindset before a trade; the pen–paper–candle exercise is the upgraded version for spot decisions
• Rising momentum / falling momentum (QTT – QTG) (RSI up/down momentum) — in a trend, momentum almost always completes → the criterion for holding/closing
• Managing trades and taking profit (trade management and taking profit) — partial closes, managing by structure
• Moving the stop-loss point (moving the SL) — moving the SL by the neighboring timeframe as the wave runs
• Volume & the DXY index (volume and DXY) — the volume of a breakout candle is a trend-confirmation condition
• News & the market (narrative, good/bad news, capital flow) (news and the market) — narrative/news is a tool of the wave, not its cause
• Risk wave vs profit wave (the 80/20 rule) (risk wave vs profit wave) — avoid risk before seeking profit
• Wave validity — the equation a + b = c (the validity of the ABC wave) — wave validity to confirm a bounce wave is still worth buying