News & the market (narrative, good/bad news, capital flow)

Core idea

News is not used to forecast — everything worth knowing is already on the chart. The hard part isn't knowing the news, it's guessing the market's reaction to that news, and this is essentially impossible. The right way to handle news is to place it at the wave's position and then ask: what stage did this news come out at, does the price reflect it, and who is buying/selling right now.

Details

Why you don't analyze news to forecast

• Everything is already on the chart. Kill-long / kill-short signals, buying pressure, selling pressure, accumulation zones — all visible on the chart before the news comes out.
• Even the best analysts can only predict the news, not the reaction. And the market has never reacted exactly the same way as it did in the past.
• The classic example — Covid 2020: the whole world shut down, and a wave of economists forecast a major financial crisis right after. Traditional business really was hit hard. But the financial markets reacted in the exact opposite direction: money that couldn't go into production flowed into financial assets, and the sharks created a wave to buy in exactly during that phase. Nobody could have predicted this in advance.
• ⇒ The teacher's blunt conclusion to the group: you don't need to read the news, don't pay attention to interest-rate news or political news when making entry decisions.

The CORRECT way to handle news: place it at the wave's position

News only comes in two flavors — good and bad. The question isn't "is this news good or bad" but:

Question 1 — What STAGE of the wave does this news come out at? Good news during an uptrend ≠ good news during the corrective wave of a downtrend. Same news, two positions, two completely different outcomes.

Question 2 — Does the price REFLECT that news or not? This is the most powerful question. An example the teacher uses: a major financial institution goes bankrupt (extremely bad news) and the price doesn't crash ⇒ immediately ask "why didn't it crash?" ⇒ the answer: there's no selling pressure, or it's already been fully absorbed ⇒ that's a strong signal, not a weak one.

Question 3 — Is this buying/selling pressure a SHARK or a SMALL FISH?

• Small fish don't have enough force to create a large crash/rally. A trend from the 1D timeframe up has to be decided by the market-maker group — because the crowd lacks knowledge, lacks capital, and lacks consensus (everyone wants a different direction).
• If it's a shark selling ⇒ ask next: what is it selling for? Usually to reset the game — knock the price down so the crowd dumps their holdings, it re-accumulates at the lower zone, and only then does the next uptrend wave come.
• If it's in a zone it just pushed the price up very hard ⇒ it can't sell there itself, because doing so would cause its own loss. ⇒ Any selling pressure there will get fully absorbed.

News is a TOOL, not a cause

• War, crisis, political events, halving… are not the driver of a price rise. They are the excuse used to build a story (narrative) that justifies the price.
• Why a narrative is needed: the sharks can't pull the price up and then dump it on themselves. They need new crowds to jump in before they can dump. To get the crowd in, you need a Story compelling enough — "the national currency is losing value," "the bank is about to collapse," "this coin will hit $200,000."
• Ordinary people's money is too small to create a wave. Roughly 80% of the world's wealth sits with a small group of people, 20% with everyone else — and within that 20%, only a very small fraction buys crypto. So "the public's money seeking shelter because of war" is a hope, not a real mechanism.

The rule for releasing news according to wave position

• At the TOP zone: a flood of good news comes out, grand targets get thrown around one after another, media coverage is loud, neighbors/coworkers start bragging about their profits → the crowd FOMOs in → a top distribution zone forms → crash.
• At the BOTTOM zone / during a corrective wave: a flood of bad news gets pumped out so small fish panic and dump their holdings, after which the price keeps rising. A correction in the middle of a trend can drop 30%+ — if your psychology breaks, you sell right at the bottom.
• ⇒ In a trend, bad news mid-trend is a shakeout tool, not a signal the trend has ended. The condition for holding is still technical: is the upward momentum still there or spent.

News released at the RIGHT PHASE — and the teacher admits he can't explain it any tighter than this

A question the whole group raised when two big names in the industry attacked each other: why didn't they fight at $60k, or at $45–50k, but exactly when the price had come back down to ~$20k, after nearly half a year of sideways action at the bottom?

The teacher answers flatly that there's no tight logical explanation — only a recurring observation: people with major influence always pick the phase that works in their favor. Strike near the bottom and small fish panic and dump their holdings; strike in the middle of an uptrend and small fish won't dare sell, and nothing gets accumulated.

Careful: Keeping this uncertainty on record as-is, because it matters more than a neat explanation: this is an observation about phase, not a rule you can derive. Don't use it to forecast "bad news is coming because the price is at the bottom" — that direction of inference isn't valid.

The circulating supply structure decides how EASILY an asset can be manipulated

The same amount of money hitting two different tokens produces very different price swings, and the variable is the actual proportion of supply that's truly circulating in the market:

• A token mostly held by the team, with only a small portion released into circulation ⇒ both pumping and dumping the price are cheap.
• A token that's already released more supply into the market ⇒ needs more money to create the same swing.

The teacher compares two exchange tokens involved in the drama at the time along exactly this axis (the % figures in the subtitles couldn't be read with confidence — keep the framework, don't quote the numbers).

The correct way to use this: this is a criterion for screening an asset before trading it, not an entry checklist. A coin with a low float makes every technical analysis on it less reliable, because one party can redraw its chart with an amount of money that isn't even large (ban co du an altcoin, chap nhan vi the yeu boi theo ca map).

News's correct place in the system

News should only appear in one single place: the "factors supporting a rise / supporting a fall" column of the pen-paper-candle exercise, as a line of context. Never a reason to enter a trade, never a reason to hold a trade once the technicals have signaled an exit.

STAY OUT of the news window

Concrete behavior for the moment news drops:

• Only use the news release time to know when to check the chart. Absolutely don't let theory dictate action in the style of "rates went up, so I must short."
• The underlying theory still matters: cutting rates = pushes money out into the economy → financial assets usually rise; raising rates = pulls money back in → assets usually fall. But that's a long-term trend, not a guide for that specific session.
• An illustrative case: the Fed raised rates 0.75% (bad news in theory) — that day's chart kept the same old resistance/support levels, just whipsawed hard within the sideways range, and RSI produced no pattern. Price shot up to sweep shorts, then plunged to sweep longs; trading groups were full of liquidations.
• Rule: heavy volatility + no pattern = stay out until the price line turns "smooth" again. The teacher only enters after the news noise has cleared and the 15m timeframe has scrolled clean.
• Making money during a news-noise stretch (even on demo) is not an achievement — it's a bad period to practice in, because it teaches the wrong reflexes.

"Counting fish that got away" — a sign of gambler's thinking. Sitting there calculating "if I'd entered that move I'd have made 2,000 points" is a straight path to blowing up: win once, get liquidated nine times. What separates a trader from a gambler is that every decision comes with a known risk, of a known size (tu duy trader vs tu duy con bac).

The closing line about account size: if you can't control a small account, you will never control a large one. Forge this discipline now — don't wait until the money is large enough to hurt.

Banning "folk wisdom about news" as a reason to exit

This is a more subtle variant of the point above: not entering because of news, but exiting because of news.

• The stock phrase to drop: "news is about to drop, it'll whip both ways no matter what, better close now to be safe." That's word-of-mouth folk wisdom, not data.
• The one and only standard is still the price line: break support, exit; hold support with the parent timeframe still in an uptrend, hold or re-enter. News is secondary — it's the price line that actually measures how much the news matters, and the price line shows up first.
• A one-question test: if there were no news today, would I be taking this exact action? If yes → news isn't allowed to change your action. If no → you're acting because of the news.
• The practical consequence: closing out of fear of news, planning to re-enter once the news has passed = almost certainly missing the wave, because by the time the news is out, the price has already moved.
• The metaphor the teacher uses: treating an illness with folk remedies — the textbooks clearly explain what each organ does, and if you're not a specialist but treat it with a folk trick, "meant to cure but ends up crippling."
• A note about planning: setting a scenario in advance for a support zone is so you can act if it happens, not an act of willpower forcing price to follow the plan (Don't predict the market — "to make money, you don't need to know what happens next").

NEW capital needs a story the GENERAL PUBLIC can understand

Directly extends the "news is a tool" point: not every narrative can pull new money in.

• An uptrend strong enough to multiply market cap by 1.5–2x needs capital from people who've never known this market before. The old groups have already been swept through season after season (the lending/interest-earning season, then the tech workers / office workers / city-dwellers season).
• The old story (a tech billionaire's remark, a new financial product) can't reach people out in the countryside / people with no tech exposure — they don't know who that person is, so the narrative is meaningless to them. To reach this group you need legislation / official state-level participation, and the precondition is they still have money.
• The ETF case (turning Bitcoin into a security) — two reasons it doesn't automatically become a wave driver on its own: (1) the money doesn't flow into spot crypto, people buy a contract on a stock exchange; (2) it only raises credibility with people who already know ETFs/stocks/crypto — that is, the old group.
• The metaphor the teacher uses — mutated orchids: everyone already knows what an orchid is, and seeing a neighbor get rich makes them dare to jump in. Tell that same neighbor to invest in a complex product overseas and they won't understand it, and if they don't understand it, they won't put money in. The whole game still runs on greed + basic trust, and the simpler it is, the more people it can pull in.
• A closing line on scale to keep you level-headed: the entire crypto market, at the time of the session, was only roughly the market cap of a company like Apple. An ETF or a large corporation doesn't automatically turn into a BTC wave if the money isn't really going into spot (Volume & the DXY index, 20 investing rules + the 3 stages of improving your trading).
• Same logic: a halving, or a big piece of news that happens to coincide with a corrective wave, is not the cause of a new uptrend — see Building a wave scenario.

The two effects that push a price up — and a narrative has to be born in the PREPARATION phase

The teacher boils the essence of "pumping the price / making money" down to exactly two effects, true across every financial market:

1. The marketing / media effect — you have to advertise that your company is good, that your solution helps society, what problem this coin solves.
2. The price effect — people see others profiting and jump in (FOMO).

From this comes a very useful rule about timing when reading the market:

A new term / narrative has to be born during the PREPARATION stage, not the harvest stage.

The reason is simple: the public needs time to absorb the messaging. Pumping the marketing right when the price is already running doesn't leave enough time to pull money in. → Seeing a new narrative being planted while the market is quiet is an early signal; but seeing quiet with no story being planted at all means you shouldn't expect a big wave right behind it. The narrative also has to be newer than the old one (NFTs, the metaverse… once used up, they can't be reused).

A consequence that rules out a commonly heard argument: "people are afraid their money is losing value so they'll rush to buy BTC" is NOT enough to create a trend. With nobody stepping up to market it, there's no consensus; and right during that phase of fear, people prioritize gold (a safe-haven asset) rather than BTC (a risk asset that just crashed). To check this, ask 10 people on the street: after BTC went from $70k down to $20k, all they hope for is the price rising so they can get out — nobody sees it as a shelter.

How to use this when building a scenario: a 4x in market cap requires most of the money to come from small fish, and small fish only come in when there's a story. No story yet → the probability of a "breakout" scenario has to be marked down, even if the technicals look supportive. But still keep the rule of following what you SEE, not what you THINK: if a low-probability scenario happens anyway, just ride it move by move and close out once the momentum runs dry.

Putting it into practice

1. When big news breaks, don't open the news — open the chart first. Ask: does the price reflect it?
2. If bad news comes out and the price doesn't crash → record it as a strong signal, look for a long entry through your system (don't buy because of the news).
3. If good news comes out and the price can't rise → weak signal, watch out for a distribution zone.
4. When you see media and social networks start pumping out grand targets, and acquaintances start bragging about their profits → trigger the top zone alert, prepare an exit position and a big-short scenario → Wave scenarios when the market IS TRENDING.
5. When you see a flood of bad news in the middle of a running trend → go back and check the upward momentum first, before doing anything.
6. Don't read interest-rate/macro news to time entries; if you want to track macro context, track DXY on the chart — it's already aggregated everything → Volume & the DXY index.

What the teacher stresses / common traps

• "News is manipulated, you know" — treat news as a designed product, not objective truth.
• Biggest trap: using news to justify a position you already hold. People will find every possible reason to defend a conclusion they've already reached — news is the most abundant source of "reasons."
• Second trap: comparing to the past to predict. "Last time rates went up, the market did this…" — it's never like the past.
• The teacher's question-asking technique is the most worth learning: instead of analyzing the news, he always asks "in this scenario, do the sharks profit or lose?" — that single question alone eliminates most nonsensical scenarios before you even touch technical analysis.
• Finally: investing must never bring in expectation and hope. Only what the market is showing you right now.

The motto: The chart repeats, the news doesn't

This is the root reason for building your system on the chart rather than on the news.

• The chart repeats because human nature doesn't change: the market runs on greed and fear, so the cycle of rise – fall – accumulation repeats over and over. The sharks themselves rely on exactly those two things to create the cycle. ⇒ Technical analysis + psychology give you a relatively fixed answer.
• News doesn't repeat: the 1970 crisis ≠ 2008 (real estate / Lehman) ≠ 2020 (pandemic) ≠ 2022 (FTX). "No one steps into the same river twice." ⇒ There's no template to memorize.
• Consequence: clinging to news and exchange drama = being controlled forever. What you actually need to do is read the gap between buying and selling pressure on the price, and from that infer backward the market makers' psychology and intent.

News is one thing, the REACTION to news is another

Even knowing the news in advance, you still can't forecast how the market will react — the same type of news, one time it reacts one way, next time another way.

Covid is the model case: lockdowns, the real economy declining, tons of people immediately predicting a financial crisis. In reality the upward force on the chart stayed intact, with multi-timeframe agreement — because money that couldn't go into production flowed into financial assets instead. The paradox of "economic indicators falling, financial indicators rising" lasted for years. Whoever shorted because of the news was wrong. In one session the teacher was more specific: going by the news, "it should have crashed right away," but the chart actually ran up one more leg before it crashed.

The interest-rate cycle — what stands behind the news cycles

Cutting rates → pumps money out; raising rates → pulls money back in. This is a cycle with a hand steering it (government / central bank), not something random. The teacher stresses: without understanding how money and banking work, you'll stay stuck in the role of debtor, forever inside the borrow-and-repay loop.

(Two metaphors the teacher uses: Vietnam's stock market in 2005–07 got so hot that you could walk onto the floor, buy 10,000 Vinamilk shares, and by the time you carried the receipt to the door to resell it you'd already made a profit — that was the peak of greed. And Warren Buffett's line: only when the tide goes out do you find out who's been swimming naked.)

Related lessons

• Volume & the DXY index — macro context read through the chart instead of through news
• Wave scenarios when the market IS TRENDING — narrative as a tool for pushing the wave; preparing for the top zone
• Building a wave scenario — news is just one line of data within the scenario
• Range vs trend tactics — bad news mid-trend is a shakeout tool