High-probability patterns

Core idea

An RSI pattern has value when part of it sits above the 60 zone or below the 40 zone (or both) — because only there is the buying/selling pressure genuinely dominant, so a force that bends it back the other way actually proves its strength. A pattern that sits entirely inside the 40–60 band = no evidence to judge → skip it. Strongest of all is a pattern with related force (momentum up/down before it) — giving a continuation probability of roughly 80/20.

Details

Three steps you must do BEFORE hunting for a pattern

1. Identify the market trend — work down from the largest timeframe. This step decides about 50% of your win rate: entering against the dominant force is how you blow up the account.
2. Identify the market's thinking / switch — is the wave currently running the main wave or a pullback wave? How far are you allowed to expect it to go? If the higher timeframe is still out of phase, you must be careful and not dream of a far target.
3. Identify the timeframe currently running the wave (the responsible timeframe). Principle: the wave runs from the lower timeframe up to the higher timeframe; once the lower timeframe finishes its wave, it hands the decision to the next higher timeframe.

Classifying patterns

Type 1 — Patterns WITH related force (the most beautiful) "Related force" = before the pattern there was already upward momentum or downward momentum.

• Upward momentum beforehand is telling a story: buying pressure has been strongly dominant, and the current stage is just buying pressure taking a breather, with no sign yet of rising selling pressure.
• From that you can forecast: roughly 80% of the time, after the correction wave there will be a continuation wave, at least back to the old high. Estimated buy/sell ratio 80:20.
• The same applies to downward momentum on the way down.

Type 2 — Patterns WITHOUT related force but still beautiful You don't need momentum beforehand to enter. It still counts as beautiful when:

• RSI goes from above the 60 zone down below 40 and then curls back up (a bullish pattern).
• RSI goes from below the 40 zone up above 60–70 and then plunges down (a bearish pattern).
• Or it runs through both zones (from 70 down to 30 and back up, or the reverse).

The scale logic: a zone above 60 means the buying force already weighs about "6kg." To stop it and bend it back, the opposing force must weigh "7kg" → that force has value, it is measurable. But if the scale only weighs "0.5kg" (RSI dangling in the 40–60 range), then whether you put a 1kg or a 100kg weight on it, it still wins — it doesn't reflect real strength.

Sharper still — the real threshold is 70, not 60: during the formation of the pattern, RSI must have a part that reaches 70 or above (bullish pattern) or drops to 30 or below (bearish pattern) — whether that's the starting point or the ending point — for it to truly count as beautiful. Why: once RSI has only climbed to ~60, the buy/sell force ratio is only about 1.1 times (roughly 5.5 parts buying to 5 parts selling) — nearly balanced, with no real increase yet. Even a very small selling force is enough to pull it back down → that pattern almost can't push price very far. Only when RSI touches 70+ does it prove that buying force has genuinely exceeded selling force, and only then is the force bending it back heavy enough to drive a clear wave.

The "calling people to fight" metaphor: a pattern that only reaches 60 is like one side only managing to call 2 people out to fight — the other side calling 3 people ends it right there, the wave amounts to nothing. A pattern that pushes RSI to 70 is like mobilizing ~50 people; to bend that back into a bearish (cutting-down) pattern, the other side has to call at least 60 people → the force of those 60 people is enough to drive a real wave.

The "lifting 50kg vs. 1kg" metaphor: you can't see buying/selling force with your eyes, you can only infer it from "how much weight it can lift." Someone who lifts a 50kg weight with one arm — you immediately know they're strong; the same person lifting a 1kg weight tells you nothing, because even a weak person can lift 1kg. RSI touching 70/30 = lifting a 50kg weight (the force is exposed, measurable); RSI dangling at 40–60 = lifting a 1kg weight (no evidence). This is why a pattern sitting entirely inside 40–60 must always be discarded.

The "pebble vs. lake surface / sea surface" metaphor: the size of the force decides whether the wave is worth eating. When the higher timeframe has no pattern, the market is like a calm lake — throw in a small pebble (a weak force, or a wave popping up out of an unprepared sideways zone) and it still makes ripples, but the reward is small and the risk is high. When a pattern has clearly prepared a real force, the market is like a sea with white-capped rolling waves — throw the same pebble in and it makes no impression at all, meaning the wave that's running is backed by a genuinely large force. The consequence: a wave that pops straight up out of a patternless sideways zone should be skipped (the pebble); if it keeps climbing after that, it's a new, abnormal force joining in (whales/manipulation/news) → wait for it to form a correction wave, then buy into that — don't chase it.

Type 3 — BAD patterns, must be discarded

• Sits entirely within the 40–60 band from start to end: neither buying nor selling force has increased at all → no evidence. (Sometimes, by luck, that's actually a 100kg force, but you have no basis for knowing it — if you do, it has to be read on a different timeframe.)
• RSI plunges down once and immediately snaps back up: that's not momentum, there's no accumulation → skip it.
• The pattern sits inside a sideways zone, with RSI crossing up and down repeatedly → the whole signal is worthless.
• The pattern has no spread and no slope in RSI relative to the two moving averages (this is a baseline condition, always to be checked alongside the rest).

Type 4 — Beautiful but FORBIDDEN to enter, because it's against momentum

• RSI has already pulled below 20, forming downward momentum, then curls back up → don't buy to catch the bottom.
• RSI has already risen above 80, forming upward momentum, then curls back down → don't short to catch the top; after the correction there will be a chance to buy again.

How to determine the range of a pattern

Starting point = where RSI crosses below the two moving averages; ending point = where RSI crosses above the two moving averages (for a bullish pattern; the reverse for a bearish pattern). You must take the whole of that range before judging which RSI zone it sits in — don't arbitrarily cut out a segment in the middle.

The three-part entry condition set

1. The target timeframe must HAVE A PATTERN — a precondition. No pattern, no entry, full stop.
2. Permission from the higher timeframe — a necessary condition. Failing this step ruins the trade; no need to check further.
3. Support from the lower timeframe — a sufficient condition: the lower timeframe has fully reset its opposing momentum, no more downward force, RSI is above the 60 zone and holding there, the lower timeframes agree and pull each other up.

Being in an uptrend state ≠ the force coming from that timeframe

The 3D's RSI sits above the two MAs → you can still say "3D is in an uptrend state." But if 3D has no pattern of its own, that upward force doesn't originate from 3D — it's being pulled up by another timeframe. Two different definitions, and you must distinguish them when judging how durable the wave is.

SELF-GENERATED force vs. RELATED force — and the "cancelled out" mechanism

A lower timeframe (e.g. m15) can pop up on its own and create a wave with its own self-generated force. But if the adjacent higher timeframes (H1, H4) don't agree — their RSI is "drunk and spinning" (crossing up and down chaotically within 40–60) — then that self-generated force cannot pull H1/H4 up and it will get cancelled out: the wave jerks up a few beats and then dies. A real trend = agreement of force across multiple timeframes; without agreement, a lower-timeframe pattern, however good-looking, is just "thrashing about."

Three criteria for a beautiful pattern WITH related force (in decreasing order of importance):

1. Trend agreement from the higher timeframe — the most important. Without this, the other two criteria mean nothing — drop the trade.
2. RSI starts from the 70-and-above zone (a bullish pattern with related force) — meaning there was momentum beforehand.
3. The correction wave doesn't break the ~0.618–0.65 fib (the prior wave's validity is still intact).

Trading the "lonely bet" / "sticky-rice punch" — how to play when you're forced to enter while the higher timeframe's trend is NOT clear: No set-and-forget here. You have to sit and watch it live to see buying force from a super-small timeframe actually appear before you click: wait for M1 to hold the 60+ zone and pull M5 up → M5 pulls m15 up. Only enter when you see the phenomenon of buying force from the lower timeframe with your own eyes; at the same time, cut your size, keep the stop short, take profit early, because by nature this is betting on a wave with only about ~60% probability. Don't see that phenomenon, skip it.

Putting it into practice

Setup-filtering checklist (run in order, stop at whichever step fails)

1. What's the overall trend of the higher timeframes? Main wave or pullback wave?
2. Which timeframe is currently running the wave / making the decision?
3. Does the target timeframe have a pattern? Does that pattern have a part above 60 or below 40?
4. Does RSI have spread and slope?
5. Was there momentum (related force) before the pattern? → if yes, expect 80/20; if no, lower your expectation to ~60/40.
6. Does the higher timeframe permit it?
7. Has the lower timeframe reset its opposing force and entered the aligned force yet (RSI > 60 and holding)?
8. Is the R:R worth it? If not, drop it — like buying stock at 8 and selling at 10; however easy the sale, it's not worth the effort.

Lowering expectations when there's no momentum

• A wave without momentum usually rises in a jagged, zigzag channel, sometimes correcting all the way to 0.618–0.7 before it goes up again.
• For this type, the 0.5 fib is no longer a valid measure: the fib was made to measure the strength of a wave with a dominant (80:20) structure. If you see the timeframes failing to maintain their upward validity, take profit — don't wait for a break of 0.5 to close out; by then you'll have lost all the profit.
• Likewise, the threshold "RSI holding above 40 means the uptrend structure is still valid" only applies to the case where there is upward momentum.
• If RSI pokes below 40 with a wick and immediately bounces back up, that doesn't yet count as broken — you still judge whether RSI holds 40 or above.

What the lower timeframe is for The lower timeframe is not where you go hunting for the pattern — it's where you observe how the buying/selling force is showing itself (what state RSI is in, whether it's expanding, whether the lower timeframes agree). The main pattern is on the target timeframe. If the lower timeframe happens to also have a pattern, that's even better, but it's not required.

What the teacher stresses / common traps

• 80% of the time the market has no evidence, only ~20% does — true on every timeframe, even m15. Bad patterns always outnumber beautiful ones.
• Rule number one is avoiding risk, and only after that comes making profit. Say NO more often than you say YES. Be willing to miss a wave, even one worth several thousand points, if the evidence isn't clear.
• The trading-journal test: strip out every trade you entered on a gut feeling of "looks pretty," keep only trades with a genuinely good pattern → the remaining profit number is surprisingly large. It's the fuzzy trades that eat away at your stops and grind away all the profit from the real opportunities.
• Getting used to the taste of fuzzy waves builds a bad habit — you gradually take on more risk than profit.
• Don't enter a trade during a news release: candles jerk up and down on both sides, there's no evidence. The trend forms first, and the news comes out to justify the price — you need to already have a position before the news drops; when the news drops is when you're managing the trade and taking profit.
• Skip stretches of chaotic phase disagreement (H1 against H4, H4 against 1D): the probability is a coin flip, "odd or even."
• Don't trade below m15 in the early stage; the smaller you go, the more exhausting and psychologically stressful it gets. Trading H1/H4 is more relaxed, gives you more time to decide, and the profit is still good.
• The smart person's mistake: hunting for an explanation for every wave on the chart. 80% of what happens is senseless/drifting — trying to explain it just wastes time. The same goes for backtesting: only backtest the cases with a clearly visible pattern.
• A metaphor repeated often: when panning for gold, you only pick out the gold, you don't shovel up all the coal, sand and gravel and then sit there filtering. And when buying land, however great the location, if there's no title deed, you still don't buy.
• The feeling "this trade is only about 60% likely to win" → whether you stand aside or enter is a personal choice, but you have to pay the corresponding risk and know what you're choosing.

Related lessons

• Moving the stop-loss point — the pattern decides the expectation, the expectation decides how you hold and move the stop
• Three sensitive points of a wave — after entering on a correct pattern, manage using the wave's 3 sensitive points
• Overlapping waves & the responsible timeframe — identifying the timeframe currently running the wave (step 3)
• Rising momentum / falling momentum (QTT – QTG) — defines momentum, the foundation of "related force"
• Wave logic · Entry point
• The rush psychology when entering a trade — the root cause of entering before there's enough evidence