"Bold" is different from "blind" — and why position matters more than price

Core idea

"Bold" (liều) is increasing your size after you already have enough evidence; "blind" (mù) is increasing your size because of other people's expectations. The two actions look identical from the outside — both are entering a large trade — so you have to tell them apart by what came before the decision, not by the trade's size. Alongside this is a counter-intuitive reversal: position matters more than price — buying more expensively with a position backed by enough factors beats buying cheaply when the factors aren't there yet.

Details

A table of distinctions

The teacher's closing line on the second column: lying down before the market even goes up. The blind don't lose because the market goes the other way — they lose because they burn through all their ammunition on unclear waves, so by the time the real wave shows up, there's nothing left to enter with.

Why not go all-in even when the market looks risk-free

It's not about fearing the wrong direction. It's because the wave can be slow. A position that's in the right direction but sits still for three weeks is still enough to kill an all-in account through fees, through leverage, or because the person holding it runs out of patience and breaks discipline with their own hand. Leaving 2/10 in reserve isn't to guard against the market — it's to guard against yourself during the waiting period.

Position matters more than price

This is where it runs against the instinct to buy cheap. A cheaper price without enough factors means you're buying the right to sit and worry while you wait; a more expensive price with enough factors means you're buying a position the market has already confirmed. The cost of the price difference is usually smaller than the psychological cost of sitting in an unconfirmed trade.

The consequence for seasonal capital management: in a downtrend/sideways market, trade cautiously and only use the previous season's profit, without touching your principal. Eating the middle stretch of an uptrend wave — skipping the beginning and the end — is already enough.

Putting it into practice

1. Before increasing size, write down evidence, not reasons. If the list you write turns out to be entirely other people's talking points, that's blind. Do this by hand — see Notes & trading journal — the process that turns analysis into discipline.
2. Set the size ceiling before the session, not during it. The numbers 5/10 and 8/10 are the teacher's own stated preference, not a formula — everyone sets their own ceiling, but it must be set before looking at price.
3. Always leave the last part in reserve. No situation justifies 10/10.
4. Don't copy someone else's size. Someone trading with last season's profit and someone building their original position are two different problems, even when they enter the exact same trade at the exact same price.
5. When the price is better but the factors aren't there yet: skip it. Log the trade you skipped so you can review it later — this is the kind of mistake that never shows up on a statement, so it's very easy to fool yourself about.

What the teacher stresses / common traps

• "The lower your position, the more careful you have to be" — not "having nothing yet means you should be bold." This is a killer trap for beginners: small capital makes them think a loss doesn't cost much, so they trade carelessly; but small capital is exactly the stage that can least afford to be wrong.
• The aiming-and-shooting metaphor: you fire when you're sure the bullet will hit. Missing a shot doesn't just cost you the bullet — it also spooks the flock of birds, meaning you lose the opportunity that was there too. In trading, the capital cost and psychological cost of a careless trade wreck the state you need to take the good trade that comes right after it.
• A language trap: "liều" in everyday Vietnamese carries the sense of daring to accept a risk you don't know. In this system, "bold" means the opposite — accepting a risk that's already been measured. Anyone using the word in its everyday sense will understand the rule backwards.

Related lessons

• Stress in trading & capital strategy to reduce pressure — the overall capital strategy; this note is the slice on "when you're allowed to increase size"
• The betting mindset — accepting both the risk and the advantage — accepting both the risk and the upside; the psychological premise behind setting a ceiling
• 20 investing rules + the 3 stages of improving your trading — the underlying rule set
• High-probability patterns — exactly what "enough factors" means, concretely
• Getting Comfortable with Uncertainty — the less clear it is, the more certain you must be; this note states the cost of entering while it's still unclear
• Risk wave vs profit wave (the 80/20 rule) — classify the wave before discussing sizing